For most of the past 40 years, the Middle East has been a volatile region engulfing not only the neighboring countries into one coflict or another but also drawing powers from far-off lands into the fight, most of whom are drawn in by either the compulsion to come in for Israel or for the oil.

It isn’t a surprise that many believe the third world war will be sparked by an incident in this fiery region.

As if we did not have the Iran Nuclear issue. Now, incidents on the Turkish-Kurdish Iraq border are boiling up to dangerous proportions.

It started by a short sighted group of US legislators, who raked up the killings by the then Ottoman empire of Armenians ninety years ago, just to get some votes from the Armenian community in the US. This has naturally angered Turkey, a NATO member and a key US ally for many years.

It had exercised restraint till now in face of provocation by Kurdish separatists-PKK and not entered northern Iraq in pursuit only because US does not want to complicate matters in Iraq. As such Turkish political leaders of the AKP have strained relations with the country’s secularist military which has always wanted to go after the PKK into Iraq. Erdogan will now find it hard to keep it on a leash after the US lawmakers’ Armenia ‘genocide’ proposals.

The Turkish parliament has already authorized military action in Iraq against the PKK. Erdogan is waiting for the US, the Iraqi military or the Iraqi Kurdish authority to restain the PKK’s pin pricking of Turkey. If they fail Turkey will move in. Such a move will be supported by both Syria and Iran, as they face unrest in their own Kurdish populated regions.

Some scenarios how the middle east might seed the next so-called ‘Great War’:

Flashpoint scenarios.

1– Israel moves into Gaza to teach Hamas a lesson and to stop the Qassam rockets coming into their country from there.

2– New conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah still hold the two Israeli soldiers they kidnapped. Israel hammered Lebanon to bits last year but to no avail.

3– Turkey moves into Iraq. Fighting between Kurds and the Turks begins. US tries to divert soldiers to the north to douse the fire. Violence increases in other parts of Iraq as US military presence dwindles. Iran foments more trouble in Iraq as it supports Shia groups in the country.

An angered US orders air strikes on Iran. Assuming Iran has some crude nuclear devices already; it bombs Israel. In the madness that follows Israel uses small nukes on Iran, Hamas in Gaza and on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

US threatens to nuke Iran. Russia and China intervene to threaten US with nukes if it touches Iran.

It is a nightmarish scenario painted here. But the frightening part is that it is likely.

Many of the leaders in the countries involved are hawkish with little wisdom. Bush tops the list. Ahmadinejad follows closely.